据道琼斯9月8日消息,渣打银行大宗商品研究主管Paul Horsnell称,当前这一轮油价动荡是过去25年中波动性最为激烈的三轮之一。他指出,自1990年以来油价波动程度超过当前的只有两次——一次是1990年8月伊拉克入侵科威特之后,另一次是2008年12月全球金融危机爆发之时。9月1日,布伦特油价10日年化实际波动率达到98%,9月4日时该数字降至95%。Horsnell称,投机性头寸起了很大的作用,而由于市场在短期及中期价格平衡的问题上分歧犹存,因此2016年油价仍将剧烈波动。
唐绍红摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
Oil Price Volatility to Stay Elevated in 2016: StanChart
[Dow Jones] The current bout of oil-price volatility is one of the three most volatile of the past 25 years, Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered says. He says volatility has only been higher twice since 1990--after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, and the onset of the global financial crisis in December 2008. The annualised 10-day realised volatility of Brent prices reached 98% on 1 September, before easing back to 95% on 4 September. Mr. Horsnell says speculative positioning has played a large role, and with the market still divided over short-term and medium-term price equilibrium, volatility is likely to be high in 2016.