中国石化新闻网讯 据9月15日Offshore Energy报道,2020年初新冠肺炎疫情爆发后,石油和天然气价格暴跌至历史最低水平。
澳大利亚竞争和消费者委员会(ACCC)在其《2017-2025年天然气市场调查报告》中指出,疫情的全面影响尚不清楚。不过,预计今年及以后的天然气供应和需求都会受到影响。
石油和液化天然气价格的下跌,虽然在短期内缓解了国内天然气用户的压力,但也增加了中长期天然气市场面临的供应风险。
该监督机构指出,尽管这些事件造成了不确定性,但东海岸的天然气供应目前预计足以满足2021年预测的国内和出口需求。然而,随着东海岸在2021年将更加依赖未开发的2P(探明+控制)储量的生产,因此,不确定性加剧了。
这些储备的开发将需要大量的投资,而在低油价环境下,生产者可能不太能够或不愿意进行这些投资。预计2021年南部各州约21%的产量将来自未开发的2P储量。
昆士兰州的液化天然气生产商预计,到2021年,其可供应的天然气将超过其国内和出口承诺的84拍焦,这些天然气既可以用于出口,也可以用于供应国内市场。液化天然气生产商目前预计将成为国内市场的净贡献者。
在石油和液化天然气现货价格大幅下跌后,许多生产商已宣布大幅削减资本支出,并推迟一些项目。虽然这些变化大多数情况下会影响中期供应,但少数生产商表示,这可能也会影响2021年的生产。
王佳晶 摘译自 Offshore Energy
原文如下:
ACCC: low oil and LNG prices hike medium, long-term supply risk
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 saw the collapse of oil and gas prices to record low levels.
In its Gas Market Inquiry 2017-2025 report, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) noted that the full effect of the pandemic is still unclear. However, it is expected to hit both supply and demand for gas this year and beyond.
The fall in oil and LNG prices, while bringing some short-term relief to domestic gas users, has increased the supply risks facing the gas market over the medium to long term.
The watchdog noted that despite the uncertainty created by these events, east coast gas supply is currently expected to be sufficient to meet forecast domestic and export demand in 2021.
However, uncertainty is heightened because the east coast is expected to be more reliant on production from undeveloped 2P reserves in 2021 than it was for 2020.
The development of these reserves will require significant investments which producers may be less able or willing to undertake in a low oil price environment. Around 21 per cent of production in 2021 in southern states is expected to come from undeveloped 2P reserves.
LNG producers in Queensland expect to have 84 PJ of gas available in excess of their domestic and export commitments in 2021, which could either be exported or used to supply the domestic market. The LNG producers currently expect to be net contributors to the domestic market.
Following the sharp fall in oil and LNG spot prices, a number of producers have announced significant reductions in capital expenditure and delays to some projects. While the effects of these changes are in most cases expected to affect supply over the medium-term, a small number of producers have informed us that it may also affect production in 2021.