据今日油价11月27日报道,德国是欧洲最大、最具活力的经济体,其天然气需求使其成为俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)天然气的最大进口商。预计该国的天然气消耗量在未来几年会进一步增加,这在很大程度上归功于其能源政策和碳证书成本的上涨。尽管可再生能源是德国决策者的主要关注点,但风能和太阳能生产的技术局限性为天然气创造了巨大空间。
间歇性仍然是大规模实施太阳能PV和风力涡轮机的主要障碍。在可以合理的价格长时间存储大量电力之前,在多云和无风的日子,需要使用另一种能源来平衡电网。天然气可以作为该能源,因为它的二氧化碳排放量比煤炭少多达55%,并且具有高能值,可与可再生能源互补。
德国已经成为国际市场上天然气的重要买家,但NordStream2(NS2)和至少两个LNG新气化厂的建设将巩固其作为重要进口商的地位。考虑到这一点,欧盟排放贸易体系(ETS)上碳证书的相对较高的价格将变得日益重要。
德国政界人士已决定在2038年之前逐步淘汰燃煤发电厂,而日本福岛核事故则对德国公众对核能的舆论产生了负面影响。因此,柏林决定在2022年之前关闭其核电反应堆。这些措施将消除该国约一半的发电能力。更糟糕的是,德国能源转型的某些方面面临着“不利因素”,例如陆上风能的扩建。 在这种情况下,天然气被视为“过渡性燃料”。
郝芬 译自 今日油价
原文如下:
The Natural Gas Nation Every Exporter Is Targeting
Germany’s economy is the biggest and most dynamic in Europe and its gas demand makes it Gazprom’s largest customer in terms of natural gas imports. The country’s gas consumption is projected to increase even further in the coming years due, in large part, to its energy policies and the rising costs of carbon certificates. Although renewable energy is the main focus of German policy makers, the technical limitations of wind and solar power production have created significant room for natural gas.
Intermittency remains the major impediment to large-scale implementation of solar PVs and wind turbines. Until large volumes of electricity can be stored for extended periods of time for a reasonable price, another source is required to balance the grid on cloudy and windless days. Natural gas could be that fuel as it emits as much as 55 percent less carbon dioxide than coal and has a high-energetic value which makes it complementary to renewables.
Germany was already an important buyer of natural gas on the international market, but the construction of Nord Stream 2 (NS2) and at least two new gasification plants for LNG will cement its position as a vital importer. With that in mind, the relatively high prices of carbon certificates on the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) are going to become increasingly important.
German politicians have decided to phase-out coal-fired power plants by 2038, while the disaster at Fukushima in Japan has negatively affected German public opinion towards nuclear energy. Berlin, therefore, has decided to shut down its nuclear power reactors by 2022. These measures will eliminate about half of the country’s power generation capacity. To make matters even worse, certain aspects of the German energy transition face ‘headwinds’ such as the expansion of onshore wind. Natural gas is regarded as a 'bridging fuel' in this situation.