中国石化新闻网讯 据油气杂志网奥斯陆报道,挪威著名独立能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司(Rystad Energy)预测,美国页岩油日产量在2030年前将达到1450万桶的峰值。雷斯塔能源公司表示,美国轻质致密油(LTO)产量在9年前还不到全球石油供应总量的1%,但在2019年这个比例已接近全球石油供应总量的10%。
雷斯塔能源公司的基本价格假设是2019年西德克萨斯中质(WTI)原油价格为55美元/桶;2020年为54美元/桶;2021年为54美元/桶以及2022年为57美元/桶。
雷斯塔能源公司页岩上游分析产品经理索尼亚·姆拉达·帕索斯表示,即使假设WTI的价格维持在45美元/桶不变,雷斯塔能源公司预计LTO供应量仍将在2030年达到峰值,但日产量仅为1150万桶。
尽管一些人对具体产量数字看法不一,然而大多数分析师预计,美国二叠纪盆地将成为2040年美国石油供应的主导部分。
帕索斯说::“根据雷斯塔能源公司的基本价格预测,我们预计到2040年二叠纪的页岩油日产量将增加到750万桶左右。”
帕索斯表示:“价格因素当然是决定我们对美国(LTO)长期供应预测的决定性假设之一。从我们的基本价格设想中可以看出,我们预计油价将在长期内上涨。”
帕索斯说:“不过,应该指出的是,未来市场状况的任何变化都将对我们的美国页岩油产量预测产生直接影响。”
李峻 编译自 OGJ
原文如下:
Rystad: US shale production to reach 14.5 million b/d by 2030
US shale production will peak at 14.5 million b/d by 2030, Rystad Energy forecast, saying US light, tight oil (LTO) represented less than 1% of world oil supply 9 years ago but represents close to 10% of total world oil supply in 2019.
Rystad Energy’s base-case price scenario assumes a West Texas Intermediate price of $55/bbl in 2019; $54/bbl in 2020; $54/bbl in 2021; and $57/bbl in 2022.
Even assuming a flat $45/bbl price for WTI, Rystad Energy estimates that the LTO supply still will peak in 2030 but at a more modest 11.5 million b/d, said Sonia Mlada Passos, Rystad Energy’s product manager for shale upstream analytics.
Most analysts expect the Permian basin will be the dominant part of 2040 US oil supply although some opinions vary on specific production numbers.
“In Rystad Energy’s base-case price scenario, we expect Permian’s production to grow to around 7.5 million b/d by 2040,” Passos said.
“The price factor is of course one of the deciding assumptions that defines our forecast for the US [LTO] supply in the long term,” Passos said. “As reflected by our base-case price scenario, we expect the oil price to increase in the long term.”
“However, it should be noted that any changes in future market conditions would have an immediate impact on our shale production projections,” Passos said.