中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价8月31日报道,俄罗斯诺瓦泰克天然气公司将从亚马尔 Nenets的预算中扣除约6亿美元(400亿卢布)的款项,并从联邦预算中扣除15亿美元(1000亿卢布),支持在西伯利亚西北部的自治区建设液化天然气出口终端。
诺瓦泰克证实了上述消息。这最新的迹象表明,在液化天然气需求不断增长之际,俄罗斯正将液化天然气的供应增加一倍。这将不可避免地取代俄罗斯一个主要出口商品,即石油的一部分需求。
去年,诺瓦泰克的市值超过俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)。诺瓦泰克经营着亚马尔液化天然气工厂,该厂的年产能为1740万吨。最终,诺瓦泰克计划运营的总液化能力为每年6000万吨。
这家俄罗斯公司并非孤军奋战。其在北极液化天然气2项目上的合作伙伴包括道达尔、中石油、日本北极液化天然气和中海油。有很多报道称,沙特阿美将入股该项目,但诺瓦泰克公司拥有60%的股份,少数股东各占10%。诺瓦泰克表示,不会减持该项目60%的股权。
外界普遍认为,诺瓦泰克是俄罗斯液化天然气国际扩张的先锋。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司也生产液化天然气,但目前规模小于这家私营企业。今年早些时候,Novatek首席财务官Mark Gyetvay在接受彭博社采访时表示,未来几年,俄罗斯可能成为全球四大液化天然气生产国之一。
彭博社估计,从今年4月开始,到2030年,美国和卡塔尔每年的天然气装机容量都可能达到1亿吨,与澳大利亚并列第一,澳大利亚为9500万吨,俄罗斯以7500万吨的液化天然气装机容量位居第四。
然而,估计是不确定的。天然气价格走低,尤其是在关键的亚洲市场,阻碍了许多私人液化天然气项目的发展,美国也不例外。这就是政府对诺瓦泰克的支持变得至关重要的地方,有了政府支持,该公司可以坚持自己的计划和时间表,在与项目延误和成本超支斗争的竞争对手面前提高生产能力。诺瓦泰克还有另一个有利因素:气候变化。
随着气候变暖,北极的部分地区正在消融,使北海航线比以前开放的时间更长。这条路线在中国的“一带一路”倡议中发挥着重要作用,它将西欧到中国的航运时间缩短了多达15天。这自然会对定价产生重要影响,进而影响竞争力。
中国企业持有诺瓦泰克两家液化天然气工厂的股份并非巧合。在亚马尔液化天然气厂,中国石油天然气集团公司拥有20%的权益,国家丝绸之路基金拥有9.9%的权益,使中国的参与总额达到近40%。
未来几年,中国将成为全球最大的液化天然气进口国,并将确保尽早获得供应,这完全是出于经济考虑。这意味着其他供应商将需要设法提高液化天然气的竞争力,至少在天然气供过于求的情况下是如此,这将压低价格,并将市场变成买方市场。
洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下:
Moscow Fuels Artic LNG Race With Billions Of Dollars
Novatek, Russia’s largest private natural gas company, will receive a tax deduction of about US$600 million (40 billion rubles) from the regional budget of Yamal-Nenets and US$1.5 billion (100 billion rubles) from the federal budget to build an LNG export terminal in the autonomous region in northwestern Siberia, Russian daily RBC reported this week.
The information, which was confirmed by Novatek, is the latest indication that Moscow is doubling down on liquefied natural gas at a time of growing demand for the commodity that will inevitably displace a portion of demand for one of Russia’s top export commodities, oil.
Novatek, which last year overtook Gazprom in market capitalization, operates the Yamal LNG plant, which has a nameplate capacity of 17.4 million tons annually, and is building the Arctic LNG plant, which will add another 19.8 million tons when completed. Eventually, Novatek plans to operate total annual liquefaction capacity of 60 million tons.
The Russia company is not going it alone. Its partners in Arctic LNG 2 include Total, CNPC, Japan Arctic LNG, and CNOOC. There were many reports that Saudi Aramco would buy into the project, but with 60 percent for Novatek and 10 percent for each of the minority partners, all the stakes have been divided-- and Novatek has said it would not reduce its 60-percent holding in the project.
Novatek is widely seen as the spearhead of Russia’s international LNG expansion. Gazprom also produces LNG but on a smaller scale than the private company, for the time being. Earlier this year, in an interview with Bloomberg, Novatek’s chief financial officer Mark Gyetvay said Russia could emerge as one of the top four global LNG producers over the next few years.
Bloomberg estimates that from April this year, the U.S. and Qatar could both have installed capacity of 100 million tons annually by 2030, sharing the top spot, with Australia following with 95 million tons annually and Russia coming fourth with 75 million tons of LNG capacity.
Estimates are an uncertain thing, however. Low gas prices, especially in the key Asian markets, have stalled a lot of private LNG projects, notably in the United States. This is where government support for Novatek becomes essential. With it, the company could stick to its plans and schedules and add production capacity before competitors who struggle with project delays and cost overruns. And there is another factor working for Novatek: climate change.
As the weather warms, parts of the Arctic are melting, opening up the Northern Sea Route for longer periods than before. The route, which incidentally plays an important Part in China’s Belt and Silk Road initiative, cuts shipping times from Western Europe to China by as much as 15 days. This naturally has important implications for pricing and, consequently, competitiveness.
It is no coincidence Chinese companies hold stakes in both of Novatek’s LNG facilities. In the Yamal LNG plant, these include CNPC with a 20-percent interest, and the state Silk Road Fund, with another 9.9 percent, bringing the total Chinese participation to almost 40 percent.
China will emerge as the world’s largest LNG importer in the coming years and it is making sure to secure supply early on, led by purely economic considerations. This means other suppliers would need to find ways to make their LNG more competitive, at least while the gas glut lasts, pressuring prices and turning the market into a buyers’ market.