中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社德国埃森报道,周三(2月6日),天然气游说团体Zukunft Erdgas集团表示,在2022年之前,德国的天然气需求可能会上升8%,以取代政府任命的委员会最近精心安排的关闭燃煤电厂的建议。
该行业组织在能源交易电子世界博览会上发表演讲时表示,该委员会的建议将使天然气成为电力供应的第二大支柱,仅次于已占40%的可再生能源。
这将高于目前天然气在总发电量中所占12.8%的比例, 相比之下,煤炭在总发电量中所占份额为 35.5%, 煤炭在2018年的发电量预计达到649太瓦时。
该行业组织的负责人Timm Kehler告诉路透社,“很明显,天然气发电站的重要性将显著增加。”
1月26日, 煤炭委员会建议到2030年将燃煤发电能力减少一半以上,核反应堆也将于2022年关闭。
Kehler说,天然气发电厂的发电量为30千兆瓦,去年只利用了38%,而去年褐煤发电厂有80%被使用,硬煤发电厂有40%被使用。
他说:“这给了委员会信心,认为煤炭的转换可以处理。”
他补充道:“现在的问题是为电力系统和天然气基础设施的长期投资提供激励。”
根据Zukunft Erdgas的计算,到2022年,天然气发电每年的额外需求在30到81太瓦时之间,这取决于天然气取代以前由煤炭所占份额的速度。
多年来,德国天然气工业未能进入煤炭市场份额,因为煤炭价格更低,即使将两倍于碳排放许可的成本计算在内。
德国是欧洲最大的天然气市场,其住宅供暖基础设施的一半依赖天然气,制造业也是如此。
他说,政治方面的认识日益提高,必须保持和加强现有的能力,并支持由城市公用事业运营的燃煤热电联产和电力装置的过渡。
他还说:“由于天然气供应增加,电力价格的上涨是可以控制的。”
德国预计,正在建设的北溪2号管线将增加天然气进口量,三个接收液化天然气(LNG)终端项目也正在竞争获得许可。
詹晓晶摘自路透社
原文如下:
German gas demand seen rising due to coal exit plan
German gas demand could rise by up to 8 percent in the period to 2022 to replace orchestrated closures of coal-fired power plants recently recommended by a government-appointed commission, gas lobby group Zukunft Erdgas said on Wednesday.
In a presentation at the E-World of Energy trade fair, the industry group said the recommendations of the commission could make gas the second pillar of power supplies, after renewables which already hold 40 percent.
This would be up from currently 12.8 percent for gas and against coal’s 35.5 percent share in a gross generation estimate putting power generation at 649 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2018.
“It is clear that the importance of gas-to-power stations will increase significantly,” Timm Kehler, head of the industry group told Reuters.
The coal commission on Jan. 26 recommended that coal-burning capacity be more than halved by 2030. Nuclear reactors are also due to close by 2022.
Gas-fired power station capacity amounts to 30 gigawatts (GW), of which only 38 percent were utilized last year versus 80 percent of brown coal plants and 40 percent of hard coal ones, Kehler said.
“That gave the commission confidence that the switch out of coal could be handled,” he said.
“Now it is a matter of creating incentives for long-term investments in the power system and the gas infrastructure,” he added.
Calculations by Zukunft Erdgas assumed additional gas demand of between 30 and a maximum 81 TWh annually for gas to go into power generation by 2022, depending on how quickly gas takes the share formerly held by coal.
Germany’s gas industry has failed for many years to make inroads into coal’s share because coal was cheaper, even when factoring in twice the cost of carbon emissions permits.
Germany is Europe’s biggest gas market as half of its home heating infrastructure relies on gas, as does manufacturing.
There is growing awareness on the political side, he said, that the existing capacity has to be kept and built upon and a transition of coal-fired cogeneration of heat and power installations, operated by urban utilities, should be supported.
He also said: “Power price increases arising from the switch to gas would be manageable because of higher supply.”
Germany expects additional import volumes from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline under construction and with three terminal projects to receive liquefied natural gas (LNG) competing for permission.?